Moderate Winners vs Cold Defenses
Backs teams winning by a moderate recent margin (based on exponentially weighted moving average) when facing opponents who have scored 107.45 points or fewer per game over their last five games while allowing more than 119.9 points per game in that span.
Part of all NBA Moneyline system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Ewma Margin
Ewma Margin
Opp Avg 5 Pts
Opp Avg 5 Pts Allowed
TOTAL PICKS
105
HIT RATE
98.04%
RECORD
50-1
ROI
+87.17%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
50
51
1
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Moderate Winners vs Cold Defenses" NBA Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 50-1 (98.04% hit rate) with 87.17% ROI across 51 graded picks. Closing line value averages 78.08, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Moderate Winners vs Cold Defenses system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NBA moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Moderate Winners vs Cold Defenses system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 105 total qualifying games, with 51 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.