Large Favorites Against Low-Scoring Defenses

How This System Works

This system triggers when the consensus point spread exceeds 3.375 points, the exponentially weighted moving average margin exceeds 2.8103 points, the opponent has averaged 107.45 points or fewer over their last 5 games, and the maximum value of the opponent's average defensive rebounds per player over their last 5 games is 8.9 or lower. These conditions identify games where the team is favored by more than a field goal against an opponent that has been scoring at a limited rate and recording fewer defensive rebounds per player in recent games.

Backs favorites in games with consensus spreads above 3.4 points where the team is winning by significant margins and facing opponents averaging 107 points or fewer with limited defensive rebounding.