Trendline Labs

Favorites vs Leaky Cold Offenses

Last updated: April 14, 2026

Backs favorites or moderate favorites when facing opponents who have scored 104.45 points or fewer per game over their last five games while allowing over 120.675 points per game, with referee crews that have historically favored home teams at above a 53.77% rate.

Part of all NBA Moneyline system records.

Favorites vs Leaky Cold Offenses is a verified NBA moneyline betting system that backs favorites or moderate favorites when facing opponents who have scored 104.45 points or fewer per game over their last five games while allowing over 120.675 points per game, with referee crews that have historically favored home teams at above a 53.77% rate. Tracked across 37 graded picks, it holds a 35-2 record with a 94.59% hit rate and 80.59% ROI. Average closing line value: 21.0 units. All results graded from verified game outcomes.

PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN

35

37

2

WINS

TOTAL BETS

LOSSES

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When This System Fires

The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.

1

Implied Win Probability

at most 0.92implied_team_win_prob

Market implies the team wins less than 92% of the time.

2

Opp Avg 5 Pts

at most 104.45opp_avg_5_pts
3

Opp Avg 5 Pts Allowed

above 120.67opp_avg_5_pts_allowed
4

Referee Home Win %

above 0.54ref_home_win_pct

Crew has a historical home-team win rate above 54%.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the "Favorites vs Leaky Cold Offenses" NBA Moneyline system still work?

The system's live record is 35-2 (94.59% hit rate) with 80.59% ROI across 37 graded picks. Closing line value averages 21.00, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.

When does the Favorites vs Leaky Cold Offenses system fire a pick?

The system triggers a NBA moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.

What is the sample size for the Favorites vs Leaky Cold Offenses system?

The system has been evaluated against 91 total qualifying games, with 37 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.

TOTAL PICKS

91

HIT RATE

94.59%

RECORD

35-2

ROI

+80.59%

Analysis generated by Optimus AI from proprietary ML system data.

For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.

Optimus

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