Close Game Momentum Against Weak Defenses

How This System Works

This system applies to games where a team's exponentially weighted moving average margin of victory is between 2.6222 and 6.3795 points, and the opponent has averaged 107.45 points or fewer over their last 5 games while allowing more than 119.9 points per game over that span. These conditions identify matchups involving a team winning by a moderate margin in recent games facing an opponent that has scored at a low rate but allowed opponents to score at a high rate in their last 5 games.

Targets teams in moderately close recent games (margin 2.6-6.4 points) facing opponents averaging 107 or fewer points scored but allowing over 119.9 points in their last 5 games.