Road Favorites in Balanced Referee Games

How This System Works

The system checks four conditions: the team's exponentially weighted moving average margin of victory exceeds 7.8529 points, the team is playing away from home, the assigned referee crew has a historical home-team win rate at or below 48.88%, and the same referee crew has a historical home-team win rate at or below 55.44%. These conditions together identify away games where the visiting team has been winning by substantial margins in recent games and the officiating crew historically presides over games where home teams win at below-average rates.

Backs away favorites with strong recent margins (EWMA margin above 7.85) when the assigned referee has a balanced home court record (home win rate between 48.88% and 55.44%).