Consistent Winners Against Weak High-Scoring Defenses

How This System Works

This system applies to NBA moneyline bets when the team's combined margin of victory or defeat across their last 3 games is 33.5 points or fewer, their exponentially weighted moving average margin is above 2.6222 points, their opponent has averaged 107.45 points or fewer over their last 5 games, and their opponent has allowed more than 119.9 points per game over their last 5 games. These conditions identify games where the team has recently played close contests with a slight positive trend in game margins, facing an opponent that scores at a low rate but allows points at a high rate.

Backs teams with narrow margins in their last 3 games and a recent scoring advantage over opponents averaging fewer than 107.5 points but allowing over 119.9 points per game in their last 5.