Heavy Road Favorites Against Cold Low-Scoring Offenses

How This System Works

This system triggers when the away team is a heavy moneyline favorite with odds of -192 or steeper, the exponentially weighted moving average of the margin is greater than -1.8064 points, and the opponent has averaged 104.45 points or fewer over their last 5 games. These conditions together identify games where a road favorite faces an opponent scoring 104.45 points or fewer recently, and the favorite's recent margin average weighted toward recent games exceeds -1.8064 points.

Backs road favorites of at least -192 when they're trending positively and facing opponents averaging 104.5 points or fewer over their last 5 games.