Elo Favorites with Low Three-Point and Defensive Variance

How This System Works

This system selects teams whose average three-point field goals made over their last 5 games is 8.7 or fewer, whose Elo rating is 52.305 points above the opponent, whose standard deviation of two-point field goal attempts over their last 10 games exceeds 4.8028, and whose standard deviation of points scored over their last 5 games is 8.1363 or lower. These conditions together identify games where a team with a moderate Elo advantage has been shooting fewer three-pointers recently, has shown variable shot selection patterns from two-point range over a longer stretch, and has scored with consistent point totals in recent games.

Backs strong Elo-rated teams facing opponents who average few made three-pointers, exhibit high variance in two-point shot attempts, and show consistent recent scoring output.