Undervalued Home Favorites with Flyball Pitching Edge

How This System Works

This system triggers on the moneyline when the pitcher's average flyball rate over their last 5 games exceeds 6.9 pitches, the home team's Elo interaction metric exceeds both 5.735 and 114.765, and the Elo undervaluation metric is at least +0.01. These conditions together identify games where the home team is rated as undervalued by at least 0.01 Elo points relative to the betting line, with their Elo interaction values crossing two separate thresholds, while the starting pitcher has allowed more than 6.9 flyball pitches per game on average in their recent outings.

Targets home teams with strong Elo ratings and positive market undervaluation, facing opponents whose pitchers allow high flyball rates on average pitch velocity (above 6.9 flyballs per game).