Low Groundball Pitchers with Inherited Runners and Stable Margins is a verified MLB spread betting system that targets pitchers averaging 11.3 or fewer groundballs per game over their last 5 starts, who inherit more than 1.5 runners on average, and show consistent run margin variance of 1.66 or less. Tracked across 305 graded picks, it holds a 70-42 record with a 62.5% hit rate and 19.32% ROI. All results graded from verified game outcomes.
MLB·spread
Low Groundball Pitchers with Inherited Runners and Stable Margins
| Record | - |
| Hit Rate | 0.625% |
| ROI | 19.32%% |
| Avg CLV | -0.028 units |
| Sample Size | 305 picks |
How This System Works
This system filters for MLB spread bets where the pitcher has averaged 11.3 or fewer groundballs induced on five-pitch at-bats over their last 5 games, has inherited more than 1.5 runners on average over their last 5 games, and the team's margin of victory or defeat has a standard deviation of 1.6582 runs or less over their last 5 games. These conditions together identify games involving a relief pitcher who consistently enters with runners on base, induces relatively few groundballs on longer at-bats, and plays for a team with consistent game margins.
Targets pitchers averaging 11.3 or fewer groundballs per game over their last 5 starts, who inherit more than 1.5 runners on average, and show consistent run margin variance of 1.66 or less.