Experienced Starters Against Steady Power Offenses

How This System Works

This system filters for games where the pitcher's average ERA over their last 5 games is greater than 2.887, their average number of pitches thrown as a starter over their last 5 games is greater than 89.1, and the standard deviation of home runs allowed over their last 10 games is 0.6749 or lower. These conditions together identify games involving a starting pitcher with an ERA above 2.887 in recent starts who has been throwing more than 89 pitches per start and has shown consistent home run prevention over their last 10 games.

Targets games with quality starting pitchers who average an ERA above 2.89 and have logged over 89 pitches per start in their last 5 outings, facing lineups with consistent home run production (low variance over last 10 games).