Heavy Favorites with Patient Hitters and Defensive Assists

How This System Works

This system applies to MLB spread bets when the starting pitcher has averaged 156.3 or fewer pitches faced by batters over their last 5 games, the team has averaged more than 7.5 fielding assists over their last 5 games, and the team is a heavy moneyline favorite with odds of -237.5 or steeper. These conditions identify games where a significant moneyline favorite with a pitcher facing fewer batters per game recently is also recording a higher rate of fielding assists.

Backs strong moneyline favorites (≤-237.5) whose batters see fewer pitches per at-bat (≤156.3 average over last 5 games) and whose defense records high assist totals (>7.5 average over last 5 games).