Twenty-Two days from now, we will all be glued to our TVs watching the chaos of March Madness unfold, and we still don’t know which teams are good enough to make it out alive. However, there is (kind of) a way to check. Trends from recent years can be used to predict which teams have the best shot at winning. National champions rarely come out of nowhere.

If I have learned anything about college basketball, it is that balance is crucial. Initially, the sport can feel overwhelming, but if you take a step back and look through the lines, it can actually be quite simple. Being efficient on both sides of the court is tough, and adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency is a key statistic that can be used to separate the elite from the not-so-much. Adjusted offensive efficiency, AdjO, tells us how many points a team scores per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength. Adjusted defensive efficiency, AdjD, does the vice versa, measuring how many points a team allows per 100 possessions, also opponent-adjusted. Since the early 2000s, most basketball national champions have ranked inside the top 25 in both categories entering the tournament, and nearly all have been top 15 overall. One-dimensional teams get exposed in March.

Two teams that matched this profile recently were the Kansas Jayhawks in 2022 and the Baylor Bears in 2021. Kansas finished the 2022 season ranked in the top 10 nationally in AdjO and in the top 20 in AdjD. Baylor was top five offensively and top 25 defensively. Neither team had a fatal flaw. Both were capable of winning an 86–80 shootout or grinding out a 65–63 defensive battle. That is the definition of balance.

The numbers tell us what a champion-caliber team looks like, but who fits the profile this season?

Numerous teams meet the requirements, but only four teams rank inside the top 10 in AdjO and AdjD. These four programs have the highest likelihood to run March:

Michigan Wolverines (AdjO #5, AdjD #1)

Michigan ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency with a top-five offense; this is the cleanest statistical profile in the country. They are 25‑2 overall and have faced the fifth-most difficult schedule in college basketball. Their KenPom rating is the second-highest in history, and they are dominating opponents. However, as we saw against Duke, they are beatable. They must learn that out-physicaling opponents is not enough against an elite team. They need to win on all fronts and outmatch them in every facet of the game.

Duke Blue Devils (AdjO #7, AdjD #3)

Duke defeated Michigan on Saturday and is now the #1 team in the country according to AP. The Blue Devils don’t need a high number of possessions to win; this is a rare advantage in March. Duke’s problem is with inconsistent guard play; no guard has scored more than 14 points in their key losses. This alone could be enough to expose them under tournament pressure.

Arizona Wildcats (AdjO #9 , AdjD #2)

Arizona checks the two-way box. They are elite on both ends. They average over 87 points per game and have a scoring margin of 18.7. They play well against solid teams, just look at their recent victories over Houston and BYU. Their weakness comes at three-point shooting; they rank near the bottom nationally with only 5.8 threes per game. If those shots don’t fall against a top opponent deep in March, it could be their demise.

Houston Cougars (AdjO #10, AdjD #7)

Houston is a defensive juggernaut. They are holding teams to 73.1 points per game, and they don’t have just a single shining star. Flemings, Sharp, and Uzan all average over 10 PPG. The main concern with Houston is its strength of schedule. They have the lowest among these top four teams and have lost three times to top-15 opponents since January 24th.

Conclusion

Several other programs are top 25 in AdjO and AdjD: Florida, Purdue, Iowa State, Gonzaga, UConn, and Vanderbilt all run efficient offenses and defenses, while remaining in the top 15 on KenPom. These squads are capable of deep runs in March if matchups fall their way. They are good teams, but their profiles suggest they are ever-so-slightly more vulnerable to upsets than the top four mentioned above.

At the end of March Madness, it will be a team with balance that cuts down the nets. A team that combines elite offense and defense, while minimizing major weaknesses. This year, Michigan, Duke, Arizona, and Houston sit as the favorites inside of those categories. However, all it takes is a bad night or a hot underdog to completely rewrite the script.

Michigan Wolverines (AdjO #5, AdjD #1)

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Duke Blue Devils (AdjO #7, AdjD #3)

Arizona Wildcats (AdjO #9 , AdjD #2)

Houston Cougars (AdjO #10, AdjD #7)

Conclusion

Who Can Actually Win in March: Pretenders vs Contenders